The UCLA Anderson Forecast

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Quote of the day The Internet will change the way we live and the way we do business, but that does not guarantee investors will get rich by buying internet stocks. Airlines and autos changed the world too, but no one would content that they've been outstanding investments over time. John J. Brennan

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey Reveals Optimistic Outlook for California Office and Industrial Markets
Slight Turning Point Expected in 2013

LOS ANGELES, CA - July 16, 2010 - Optimism is returning and a “distant glow of light at the end of the tunnel” is nearing in the California office and industrial markets, according to the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project. The survey includes the Inland Empire, East Bay, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Orange County and San Diego office markets. The survey compares the panel's forecast of the market three years hence with today's market.

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June 2010 Economic Outlook

National Economic Recovery Will be a Long Slow Climb
California Recovery Will be Weaker than the Nation's, While Los Angeles is Expected to Recover Faster Than the Rest of the State

LOS ANGELES, CA - June 15, 2010 - In its second quarterly report of 2010, the UCLA Anderson Forecast makes the case for a tepid recovery from the national recession, with unemployment levels slowly declining. The California economy is expected to grow a bit slower than the nation’s for 2010, and slightly faster thereafter. This slow growth through the forecast period will result in only modest inroads to the state’s high unemployment rate. In a report focused on Los Angeles, UCLA Anderson forecast suggests that the region’s economy will fare better than the rest of California.

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June 2010 Economic Forecast Conference
	Video The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate June 15, 2010 David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Ceridian/UCLA Pulse of Commerce

UCLA Anderson Forecast Teams with Ceridian Corporation on Launch of New Economic Indicator
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ by UCLA Anderson School of anagement Tracks Diesel Fuel Purchases Across the Country; January Data Indicate National Economy Still Disappointing

Los Angeles, Feb. 10, 2010 - On the positive side, Ceridian Corporation and the UCLA Anderson Forecast jointly announced the release of a new, first-of-its-kind indicator able to track the status, and potentially the future direction of the U.S. and regional economies. Dubbed the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, the PCI is based on real-time diesel fuel purchases by over the road truckers using a Ceridian card at more than 7,000 locations across the United States.

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New Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Reveals Need for Economic Reality Check as January Number Declines
Index Drops in january after Exceptionally Strong December; Foretells Industrial Production Index

Minneapolis, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 - Results from a major new econometric report – the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ by UCLA Anderson School of Management – show the U.S. economy fell in January after a significant increase in December, with the index falling at an annualized rate of 36.8 percent. The more reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3 percent gain at an annualized rate following the exceptional annualized rate of 14.6 percent in the previous month.

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Insights

California's Budget Does Not Solve Underlying Problems State relies too heavily on taxes from top earners Dr. Jerry Nickelsburg is a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Among his responsibilities are the economic forecast for California and authorship of the associated quarterly California Report. Last week, the state of California ended a months-long stalemate with the passage of a new budget. While the next UCLA Anderson Forecast for California is not scheduled for release until March, Nickelsburg had some immediate reaction to the newly-passed budget. [Click here to read the transcript]

From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out: Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting Daniel J.B. Mitchell September 1, 2007 In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history, so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it. Download the full article [PDF]

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The World After Greenspan [Adobe PDF] Axel Leijonhufvud December 7, 2005 Unquestionably, a very successful tenure as Fed Chairman. But the media hype about him has gone too far. Read more... [Click here to view the PDF]
An Update on Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2, 2003 [Click here to Download the PDF]
Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2002 [Click here to Download the PDF]
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