Welcome
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Quote of the day
Keep in mind the three most important aspects of real data analysis: compromise, compromise, and compromise.
Edward Leamer
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| What's Happening |
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| June 2008 Economic Forecast Conference |
UCLA Anderson Forecast Affirms No Recession
But a Very Subprime Outlook
LOS ANGELES, June 18, 2008 - In its second quarterly report of 2008, the UCLA Anderson Forecast
cautiously affirms the “no recession” prognostication it has been advocating over the past several
quarters, while acknowledging that the most recent employment data – an increase in the unemployment
rate from 5.0% to 5.5% – falls within “recession range.” Recession or not, the Forecast acknowledges
that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could dip into the negative range in the over the next six to nine
months, as the housing bust continues to wreak havoc on the national economy.
In California, the question is whether or not hard times in the real estate (and ancillary) sector(s)
have had significant impact on other areas of the state’s economy. As in the Forecast’s first quarterly
report of the year (released in March), the conclusion is that, “What happened in housing, stayed in
housing.” The California report states, “There is no generalized spread of contraction to the rest of
the economy, then when the [housing, construction and finance] sectors do hit bottom, California will
be posed to take off once again.”
[Click here for the full story]
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| Insights |
From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out:
Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting
Daniel J.B. Mitchell
September 1, 2007
In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the
UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s
current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor
has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues
that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history,
so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it.
Download the full article [PDF]
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 Book Review
A Flat World, A Level Playing Field,
a Small World After All, or None of the Above?
Edward Leamer
February 21, 2006
Award-winning journalist and author, Thomas L. Friedman discusses the changing forces
of global competition in his best-seller, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.
Award-winning professor and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Edward Leamer
reviews the book and dissects the title's metaphor in the Journal of Economic Literature
book review, "A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?"
Read more... [PDF]
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Commentary
What About the 'R' Word?
With the house party ending, don't expect robust growth -- but a recession isn't likely
Edward Leamer
January 16, 2006
In recessions we have negative economic growth, and in recoveries we rack up pluses.
But overall, the U.S. economy since 1970 has grown an average of a little more than
3 percent a year.
Don't expect that for 2006.
The Wall Street Journal, in a recent survey of 56 economists, found that their forecasts
for 2006 averaged around the "normal" rate of 3 percent. But that is not what the UCLA
Anderson Forecast projects.
[Click here for the full story]
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| Frequently Viewed Articles |
UCLA Anderson Forecast Data Release
November 2007 Seasonally Adjusted Regional Job Data for California
UCLA Anderson Forecast
December 21, 2007
[Click here for the report]
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Forecast Conference Summary
Quick Links
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The World After Greenspan [Adobe PDF]
Axel Leijonhufvud
December 7, 2005
Unquestionably, a very successful tenure as Fed Chairman. But the media hype about
him has gone too far. Read more...
[Click here to view the PDF]
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Focus on Orange County Conference
Report says new O.C. jobs pay above-average wages
James B. Kelleher
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
October 1, 2004
[Click here for the full story]
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The State of Southern California’s Housing [Adobe PDF]
Paul Ong, Kim Haselhoff, Michela Zonta and Christopher Thornberg
June 2004
[Click here to view the PDF]
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An Update on Bubble Trouble
By Edward Leamer
Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
June 2, 2003
[Click here to Download the PDF]
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Bubble Trouble
By Edward Leamer
Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
June 2002
[Click here to Download the PDF]
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[View archived publications...]
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