A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about big money.
Senator Everett Dirksen
Ceridian/UCLA Pulse of Commerce
UCLA Anderson Forecast Teams with Ceridian Corporation on Launch of New Economic Indicator
Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of anagement Tracks Diesel Fuel Purchases Across the Country; January Data Indicate National Economy Still Disappointing
Los Angeles, Feb. 10, 2010 - On the positive side, Ceridian Corporation and the UCLA Anderson
Forecast jointly announced the release of a new, first-of-its-kind indicator able to track the status, and
potentially the future direction of the U.S. and regional economies. Dubbed the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of
Commerce Index (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, the PCI is based on real-time diesel fuel
purchases by over the road truckers using a Ceridian card at more than 7,000 locations across the United
States.
New Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Reveals Need for Economic Reality Check as January Number Declines
Index Drops in january after Exceptionally Strong December; Foretells Industrial Production Index
Minneapolis, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 - Results from a major new econometric report the Ceridian-UCLA
Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy fell in January after
a significant increase in December, with the index falling at an annualized rate of 36.8 percent. The more
reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3 percent gain at an annualized rate
following the exceptional annualized rate of 14.6 percent in the previous month.
Modest Growth Coupled with High Unemployment Seen In National Economy
Little or No Economic Growth in California This Year, Followed by "Slight" Growth in 2010 Before More Normal Growth Rates Return in 2011
LOS ANGELES, December 9, 2009 - In its fourth quarterly report of 2009, the UCLA Anderson Forecast
continues its theme from September that the national economy is on a modest growth path that will be
accompanied by extraordinarily high rates of unemployment. This slow growth outlook reflects the lagged
effects of the implosion of consumer balance sheets and, according to the Forecast, is a result of the
economy in transition from being an import-oriented/low-savings rate one to a more export and higher-savings
oriented one. Fueling this transition is the administrations weak dollar policy which encourages exports
and discourages the consumption of imports and the combined effect will cause real consumer spending to
grow at a modest 2% rate far below the historical 3 3.5% rate.
In California, the UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests that the recession is playing out much as was predicted.
The states unemployment rate continues to increase and local government employment continues to decline.
Larger than expected reductions in government spending lowers the California forecast slightly when compared
to the previous report.
California's Budget Does Not Solve Underlying Problems
State relies too heavily on taxes from top earners
Dr. Jerry Nickelsburg is a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Among his responsibilities
are the economic forecast for California and authorship of the associated quarterly California Report.
Last week, the state of California ended a months-long stalemate with the passage of a new budget. While
the next UCLA Anderson Forecast for California is not scheduled for release until March, Nickelsburg had
some immediate reaction to the newly-passed budget.
Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting
Daniel J.B. Mitchell
September 1, 2007
In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the
UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that Californias
current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor
has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues
that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history,
so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it.