What Goes Up Might Come Down
How Long Can This Hot Housing Market Last?
  UCLA - Ackerman Grand Ballroom
Tuesday, June 21, 2005
7:00am - 11:30am
  Cost of the Event
  Conference Fee: $350
  Table of 8: $2000 (includes corporate placard on table and VIP seating)
  The current level of hype about real estate bears a worrisome resemblance to the bubble of the late nineties. Financial companies tout no-money-down interest-only loans as a way of extending speculators' purchasing power, and developers pitch new developments to buyers the way Wall Street analysts used to pitch new IPOs. According to the National Association of Realtors, over a third of total sales in 2004 were to families buying a second home--most for 'investment' purposes.

While housing activity levels are still high from a historical perspective, there are signs that the market is starting to slow. Appreciation rates and sales rates have peaked, and some markets have seen a rapid increase in inventory levels. The recent Fed warning regarding inflation has sent mortgage rates up.

How long can this market last? Are we in for a soft landing or a crash? Who is likely to be left holding the bag when the smoke clears? These are the questions --among many others--about the California and National housing markets that we will attempt to answer at the Conference.
Registration and Continental Breakfast
Welcome & Thanks
I. The Economic Forecast for the Nation, State and Region
  > How good will the year ahead be, and why (or why not)?
  > How long will this expansion last?
  > What kind of businesses will prosper in California during the next downturn?
  Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
  Christopher Thornberg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
  Michael Bazdarich, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
II. Is This Market Sustainable? Why or Why Not? Pro vs. Con Debate
  > What might prick the bubble?
  > How important are interest rates?
  > Overbuilt? Overpriced? Or just over-discussed?
  Moderator: Jonathan Lansner, Business Columnist, Orange County Register
  David Shulman, former Chief Equity Strategist, Salomon Brothers and former Head REIT Analyst, Lehman Brothers
  Amy Crews Cutts, Deputy Chief Economist, Freddie Mac
Questions & Answers
III. What Would be the Ramifications of a Down Market?
  > Where does the default risk reside?
  > How would builders adjust?
  > Will personal finances be devastated by speculative investing?
  > What are the implications for the multi-family sector?
  Moderator: Jonathan Lansner, Business Columnist, Orange County Register
  Gregory T. Rickard, Senior Vice President, KeyBank Real Estate Capital
  Laurie Lustig-Bower, Executive Vice President, CB Richard Ellis, Inc.
  Larry J. Kosmont, President and CEO, Kosmont Companies
  Walt Torous, Professor of Finance, UCLA Anderson School of Management
Questions & Answers
  Conference Sponsors
California Bank & Trust Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage KeyBank Real Estate Capital Wells Fargo Bank
  Check back again for program updates.
  For more information regarding this event please contact us at:
  (310) 825-1623
Last updated: May 31, 2005