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| JUNE 2005 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK | |
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What Goes Up Might Come Down How Long Can This Hot Housing Market Last? | |
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UCLA - Ackerman Grand Ballroom
Tuesday, June 21, 2005 7:00am - 11:30am |
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| Cost of the Event | |
| Conference Fee: $350 | |
| Table of 8: $2000 (includes corporate placard on table and VIP seating) | |
| Overview | |||||
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The current level of hype about real estate bears a worrisome resemblance to the
dot.com bubble of the late nineties. Financial companies tout no-money-down
interest-only loans as a way of extending speculators' purchasing power, and
developers pitch new developments to buyers the way Wall Street analysts used to
pitch new IPOs. According to the National Association of Realtors, over a third of
total sales in 2004 were to families buying a second home--most for 'investment'
purposes.
While housing activity levels are still high from a historical perspective, there are signs that the market is starting to slow. Appreciation rates and sales rates have peaked, and some markets have seen a rapid increase in inventory levels. The recent Fed warning regarding inflation has sent mortgage rates up. How long can this market last? Are we in for a soft landing or a crash? Who is likely to be left holding the bag when the smoke clears? These are the questions --among many others--about the California and National housing markets that we will attempt to answer at the Conference. |
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| AGENDA | |||||
| 7:00-8:00am | |||||
| Registration and Continental Breakfast | |||||
| 8:00-8:05am | |||||
| Welcome & Thanks | |||||
| 8:05-9:05am | |||||
| I. The Economic Forecast for the Nation, State and Region | |||||
| > How good will the year ahead be, and why (or why not)? | |||||
| > How long will this expansion last? | |||||
| > What kind of businesses will prosper in California during the next downturn? | |||||
| Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast | |||||
| Christopher Thornberg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast | |||||
| Michael Bazdarich, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast | |||||
| 9:05-9:20am | |||||
| Break | |||||
| 9:20-10:15am | |||||
| II. Is This Market Sustainable? Why or Why Not? Pro vs. Con Debate | |||||
| > What might prick the bubble? | |||||
| > How important are interest rates? | |||||
| > Overbuilt? Overpriced? Or just over-discussed? | |||||
| Moderator: Jonathan Lansner, Business Columnist, Orange County Register | |||||
| David Shulman, former Chief Equity Strategist, Salomon Brothers and former Head REIT Analyst, Lehman Brothers | |||||
| Amy Crews Cutts, Deputy Chief Economist, Freddie Mac | |||||
| 10:15-10:25am | |||||
| Questions & Answers | |||||
| 10:25-11:20am | |||||
| III. What Would be the Ramifications of a Down Market? | |||||
| > Where does the default risk reside? | |||||
| > How would builders adjust? | |||||
| > Will personal finances be devastated by speculative investing? | |||||
| > What are the implications for the multi-family sector? | |||||
| Moderator: Jonathan Lansner, Business Columnist, Orange County Register | |||||
| Gregory T. Rickard, Senior Vice President, KeyBank Real Estate Capital | |||||
| Laurie Lustig-Bower, Executive Vice President, CB Richard Ellis, Inc. | |||||
| Larry J. Kosmont, President and CEO, Kosmont Companies | |||||
| Walt Torous, Professor of Finance, UCLA Anderson School of Management | |||||
| 11:20-11:30am | |||||
| Questions & Answers | |||||
| 11:30am | |||||
| Adjourn | |||||
| Conference Sponsors | |||||
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| Check back again for program updates. | |||||
| For more information regarding this event please contact us at: | |||||
| (310) 825-1623 | |||||
| Last updated: May 31, 2005 | |||||
