When we talk about high world oil and steel prices, the conversation inevitably turns to China.
When we talk about the U.S. record trade imbalance, again the conversation turns to China. Record
port activity? Cheap goods in Wal-Mart? China. The source of the high-skilled immigrants who work
in many of our nation’s most high-tech industries? Yep- you guessed it, China again. China’s
influence on the U.S. economy is undeniable, hence understanding what is happening there is
invaluable for understanding what is going to happen here in California.
Come join the UCLA Anderson Forecast as we analyze the impact China has on the U.S. economy.
Agenda
7:30-8:30am
Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30-8:40am
Welcome and Introductions
Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
8:40-10:00am
I. National, State, Regional and International Economic Forecasts
Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Christopher Thornberg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Ryan Ratcliff, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Was the very slow 1.1% growth in Q4 GDP a fluke or a harbinger of things to come?
The slowdown in consumer spending: blip or new trend?
Housing euphoria is turning the corner, is the market going to follow?
Will Bernanke continue on Greenspan’s path or tackle new terrain?
Real estate has been driving the local economy. How much will its cooling impact the recovery?
Is the state budget realistic or are we building the foundations for another crunch?
Who’s growing and who is not? A look at the regional economies in 2005.
10:00-10:20am
II. Keynote Address: Overview on China
Donald Straszheim, Vice Chairman, Roth Capital Partners
How long can China's extraordinary growth last?
What are the stress points in the Chinese miracle?
Are there enough raw materials to support continued growth?
How much does your job depend on what is happening in China?
How much Chinese product can we absorb?
10:20-10:40am
Break
10:40-11:25am
III. Panel One: The Money Behind the Miracle
Charles Wolf, Senior Economic Adviser and Corporate Fellow in International Economics, Rand
Michael Brownrigg, Partner, Chinavest
Donald Straszheim, Vice Chairman, Roth Capital Partners
Is the Chinese Banking System up to the task?
What happens when the financial services open up to foreign firms?
Is there an appreciation of the Yuan in the near future?
Will China own the US or the other way around?
Keynote Discussion
11:25-12:30pm
IV. Panel Two: What Does China Mean to California?
Zachary J. Anderson, Corporate Economist, Nissan North America, Inc. (moderator)
Tom Debrowski, Executive Vice President of Worldwide Operations, Mattel, Inc.
Ira Kalish, Global Director (Specializing in Consumer Business), Deloitte Research
Brad Johnson, Associate Principal, McKinsey & Company
Michael Tamaru, Director of Finance, Division CFO, Cisco Systems - Linksys LLC
Are we trading good jobs for cheap goods?
Can we afford such high prices for building materials and raw materials?
What can California supply to the growing Chinese Market?
Does California have the infrastructure for more trade with China?
12:30pm
Adjourn
Conference Sponsor
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